SSA Canberra invites you to its March branch meeting of the 2022, featuring a joint talk by Belinda Barnes, Madhi Parsa, and Robert Clark on modelling in biosecurity!
Times (+/- some standard errors): 6:00pm – 7:00pm Canberra time.
Please note the SSA Canberra AGM immediately precedes the branch meeting; if you are SSA Canberra member and have no received any information about the AGM, please contact Warren.Muller@csiro.au
RSVP: RSVP is required for this meeting; please see below for the registration link via Zoom. Any issues, please contact ssacanberra@gmail.com.
Dinner: For those at Ainslie Football Club we will be having dinner at the club after the talk. If you want to attend the dinner please sign up at SSA Canberra Branch dinner attendance sheet by 5pm Monday 28 March, so that we can book a table for the correct number of people.
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Speakers: Dr Belinda Barnes (Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment) (DAWE), Dr Mahdi Parsa (DAWE), Associate Professor Robert Clark (Australian National University)
Topic: Modelling of Group-Testing Data in Biosecurity
Abstract: Group-testing is an important element of biosecurity operations, designed to reduce the risk of introducing exotic pests and pathogens with imported agricultural products. Groups of units, such as seeds, are selected from a consignment, and tested for contamination, with a positive or negative test returned for each group. These schemes are usually designed such that the probability of detecting contamination is high assuming random mixing and a somewhat arbitrary design prevalence. We propose supplementing this operating characteristics approach with an assessment of the distribution of the number of contaminated units conditional on testing results. We develop beta-binomial models allowing for between-consignment variability in contamination levels, with a further layer of nesting to allow for possible clustering within the groups for testing. We apply the approach to large cucurbit seed lots imported into Australia where it provides new insights for biosecurity regulation. An R Shiny app for assessing risks based on these models will be demonstrated.
Biographies:
Dr Belinda Barnes is the Director of Quantitative Sciences at ABARES. She has published extensively in mathematical modelling, and the application of mathematics and statistics to epidemics, biosecurity and fisheries management. Dr Barnes is the co-author of the textbook Mathematical Modelling with Case Studies published by CRC Press.
Dr Mahdi Parsa is a quantitative scientist at DAWE. He has a PhD in theoretical computer science with extensive expertise in developing decision support models by combining ideas from different fields such as decision theory, discrete mathematics, and theoretical computer science. Much of his recent research has focused on collaborating with engineers, ecologists, and policymakers to inform resource allocation decisions. He is a winner of the best paper award at the Australasian Computer Science Conference.
A/Prof Robert Clark is a statistics academic with extensive experience in sample surveys, statistical ecology, and applied statistics, both in research and in significant consulting projects. He was the SSA Ken Foreman speaker in 2011 and is an Elected Member of the International Statistical Institute.
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Zoom link:
You are invited to a Zoom meeting.
When: Mar 29, 2022 06:00 PM Canberra, Melbourne, Sydney
Register in advance for this meeting: https://anu.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZwpf-2qrjgiHdYXHIV3_vCpcpLt85Ra7X4l
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.
Website links: https://statsoc.org.au/Canberra-Branch-meetings
@StatSocAus
