Announcing the October meeting of the WA Branch of the Statistical Society of Australia. Our guest speaker is Dr Sourav Das, Senior Lecturer at Curtin University.

Date: Tuesday, 8 October 2024.

Time: 6:00PM to 7:00PM (AWST)

Location: Cheryl Praeger Lecture Room, The University of Western Australia.

Presentation

Periodogram Regression, A Two Stage Mixed Effects Approach For Modelling Multiple Integer-Valued Time Series Of Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Tropical cyclones (TC) are significant indicators of evolving climate dynamics. Two primary responses of interest are the cyclone frequency and intensity. In this work we propose a novel integrated modelling framework for simultaneous modelling of TC frequency across several meteorological regions within Australasia. The key methodological insight is to model the second order properties of multiple integer valued time series in frequency domain, instead of parametric time domain models. We take a two-stage semiparametric approach where large scale environmental variation is modelled using generalized linear models while the stochastic variation — including spatial heterogeneity — is estimated using spectral analysis of time series, under a hierarchical generating model. Using longitudinal data analysis we are able to jointly model periodicities in TC frequencies and their correlation with El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles but also the spatial variation between regions.s.

About the Speaker

Dr Sourav Das, Curtin University

Dr Sourav Das is a Senior Lecturer in statistics and data science with varied and interdisciplinary interests in applied and methodological statistics. He did his PhD at Univ of Manchester (U.K.) in spatio-temporal geostatistical modelling. His research expertise are in methodology and applications of statistical analysis of time series and spatial processes. Sourav investigates natural events that evolve over space and time. Of particular interest are landslides, tropical cyclones, river flow, and diseases. The statistical problems are wide ranging and complex.

Refreshments and Dinner

Members and visitors are invited to mingle over wine and cheese from 5:30PM onwards at the venue. Following the meeting all are invited to dine at a nearby restaurant. Visitors are welcome.

Meeting Directions

The Cheryl Praeger Lecture Room is located on the ground floor of the Mathematics building at The University of Western Australia. Its entrance is on the northern side of the building. See: UWA Maps, Google Maps.

Parking is free on the UWA Crawley campus after 5:00PM. A convenient place to park is Car Park 18 accessible from Fairway Entry 1.