The Western Australian Branch of the Statistical Society of Australia invites you to a presentation titled "Arbitrary Inflation in Fractional Models" delivered by Prof. Mark Harris, Curtin University. This meeting is also part of the National Speaker Series initiative and will therefore be livestreamed.
Date: Tuesday 8 September 2026
Time: 6:00pm - 7:00pm (AWST)
Venue: Cheryl Praeger Lecture Room, The University of Western Australia.
Format: Hybrid (Please register to get the videostream details)
Abstract: Arbitrary Inflation in Fractional Models
The analysis of subjective probabilities, that are fractional or share variables by definition, is becoming increasingly widespread in both economics and the social sciences in general. To avoid nonsensical predictions, empirical predictions for such variables must respect the fact that they are necessarily bounded on the 0 − 1 (or, 0 − 100, for percentage-type responses) interval. In addition, where the response variable of interest corresponds to a self-report on a fixed scale, individuals are often drawn to particular focal-point responses, resulting in distinct spikes in the empirical distribution. In this paper, we suggest a simple model that accounts for all of the nuances of such data, including its fractional and bounded nature as well as arbitrary inflation at such focal-points (which may appear at any point in the interval and are highly likely at the endpoints). We estimate our model using data drawn from the Italian Survey of Income and Wealth relating to an individual’s subjective marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and also US data from the Health and Retirement Survey concerning subjective notions of several adverse health outcomes.
Presenter Bio: Professor Mark Harris
Mark joined Curtin University in 2011 and is currently a John Curtin Distinguished Professor in the School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. Prior to joining Curtin, he held teaching and research appointments at Monash University and the University of Melbourne. His research spans applied economics and econometrics, with a particular focus on health and labour economics, trade, household finances and firm performance. Mark is a current member of the Australian Research Council (ARC) College of Experts; served on the panel for the most recent Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) exercise; and was a member of the Economics Panel for the 2025 ABDC Journal Quality List review. He has more than 100 scholarly publications, including in leading journals such as the Journal ofEconometrics, European Economic Review, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking and the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A.
Refreshments and Dinner
Members and visitors are invited to mingle over wine and cheese from 5:30 PM onwards at the venue. Following the meeting, all are invited to dine at a nearby restaurant. Visitors are welcome.
Venue details
The Cheryl Praeger Lecture Room is located on the ground floor of the Mathematics building at The University of Western Australia. Its entrance is on the northern side of the building. See: UWA Maps, Google Maps.
Parking is free on the UWA Crawley campus after 5:00 PM. A convenient place to park is Car Park 51, accessible from Fairway Entrance 1.
For further information please contact the WA Branch Secretary: ssa.wa.secretary@gmail.com
@StatSocAus
