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SSA AGM - followed by "Uncertain Futures: What Can We Forecast and When Should We Give Up?"

  • 17 Aug 2021
  • 5:30 PM (UTC+10:00)
  • online, time is AEST

Registration


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You are invited: SSA and ASPAI AGMs  - 17 August 2021

The 2021Annual General Meetings of the Statistical Society of Australia, Inc and the Australian Statistical Publishing Association Inc will be held on Tuesday, 17 August 2021 from 5:30 pm to 6:15 pm AEST via Zoom.

The agendas, minutes of the last AGMs and any other documents for this meeting can be viewed and downloaded here.

The AGMs will be followed by a presentation by Professor Rob J. Hyndman, Head of the Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University.

Rob's talk is titled: 

" Uncertain Futures: What Can We Forecast and When Should We Give Up?" 

About the talk:

Why is it that we can accurately forecast a solar eclipse in 1000 years time, but we have no idea whether Google's stock price will rise or fall tomorrow? Or why can we forecast the daily electricity consumption for the next week with remarkable precision, but we cannot forecast daily COVID-19 cases with the same accuracy?

In this talk, he will discuss the conditions we need for predictability, how to measure the uncertainty of our forecasts, and how to evaluate whether we are uncertain enough.

He will draw on 30 years of forecasting practice, including forecasting Australia’s health budget for the next few years, forecasting peak electricity demand in 20 years time, producing weekly forecasts of daily COVID-19 cases for all Australian states since March 2020, and forecasting the post-pandemic recovery of Australia's tourism industry.

Rob Hyndman

About the Presenter:

Rob J Hyndman is a Professor of Statistics and Head of the Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

His academic qualifications include a Bachelor of Science (Honours) and a PhD from the University of Melbourne. He is an accredited statistician with the Statistical Society of Australia.

Rob has researched and consulted with a wide range of business, industry and government clients. His most recent work includes demand forecasting for the electricity industry, estimating life expectancy for the Australian indigenous population, and forecasting Australian tourism demand.

Rob's research interests include forecasting, time series analysis, computational statistics, and exploratory data analysis. He has also supervised more than 25 PhD and Masters students, with current projects including energy analytics, data visualization, hierarchical forecasting, anomaly detection and time series forecasting.

This lecture is for available for SSA members only. It is free, but you will need to register.

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