Throughout history, Bayesian methods have helped solve complex problems that were unsolvable by other means1,2:
- During World War II, they were used to decode the German Enigma cipher and turn the tides of war
- The US Navy used them to search for a missing H-bomb and locate Soviet subs
- Insurance actuaries used them to set insurance rates
- They were used in court to demonstrate the innocence of Captain Dreyfus
- RAND corporation used them to assess the likelihood of a nuclear accident
- Harvard and Chicago researchers used them to verify the authorship of the Federalist Papers
- In medicine they were used to first establish the link between smoking and lung cancer
References:
1. A History of Bayes’ Theorem
2. McGrayne, S. The Theory That Would Not Die