The April 2021 meeting of the New South Wales branch was co-hosted by the Sydney section of the R Ladies group. Jenny Sloane gave a short presentation about R Ladies, both at the international and local levels, and explained how it promotes gender diversity within the R computing community - and also how it helps her as a researcher and data analyst.

We then had a seminar by Dr Gordana Popovic who is a research fellow and statistical consultant at the University of New South Wales. Gordana's talk was titled "Carrots are good for vision. Models are good for visualising discrete data". We didn't hear much about carrots after that, but penguins and spiders came up quite a bit. The animal theme was in keeping with Gordana's membership of the Ecological Statistics Research Group at her university. The commonly used pairwise scatterplot or visualisation of multivariate data was likened to drawings of the top and side views of an object commonly used in high school technical drawing courses.

Improved visualisation of the object is, of course, achieved by viewing it from several angles.  Gordana likened this to flying in a drone around a multi-dimensional point cloud.  The visualisation term for this is "tour" and the R package named "tourr" was mentioned due to it supporting drone-type views of multivariate data controlled by a computer  mouse.  A data concerning features of penguins collected at Palmer Station, a  research station in Antartica, was used to illustrate problems with pairwise scatterplots and tours. This is because of factors such as discreteness of the observations and counts having very many zeroes. A common quick and simple remedy is to jitter the data but this has shortcomings such as not preserving ordering.

Speaker Popovic then moved onto her central theme: using models to help with visualisation. A key principle for this is Dunn-Smyth residuals, which were cooked up at the University of Queensland in the 1990s by Peter Dunn and Gordon Smyth and published in a very well-cited 1996 Journal of Computational  and Graphical Statistics paper. Gordana explained how Dunn-Smyth principle is like jittering but preserves ordering. The upshot is much more useful  pairwise scatterplots and tours. Similar illustrations were made for spiders and interpretations of the fondness for leaves by some spider species was made possible by the new methodology.

An R package by Gordana and colleagues, named "ecoCopula", was advertised as a way for R Ladies and gentlemen to do  it themselves.  There was a brief technical part concerning copulas as a latent variable model and biplot concepts. Then there was final theme concerning ordinal data and how the ideas translated well to their visualisation as well.

Matt Wand
University of Technology Sydney

 

               

We would like to reinforce the statement made by the European Women in Mathematics¹ on the inequitable impacts of the global pandemic on mathematicians. We wish to provide further recommendations in the Australian context.

The Australian mathematical sciences community reiterates that the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic have not been equally experienced, and they will continue to be felt for a long time to come. Impacts including reduction of research output, loss of networking opportunities and collegiate connection, and increased stress on mental health have been devastating to many, but have been most acutely felt by those in more vulnerable positions.

The pressures brought on by the pandemic have exacerbated many pre-existing issues:

• researchers and practitioners in mathematics, statistics, and data science on short-term contracts or casual appointments (many of whom are early career) have faced increasing job insecurity;
•  those with caring responsibilities have seen significantly increased obligations at home, including home- schooling children or providing elderly care;
• women, in particular, who are over-represented in the above groups, have experienced these as a double-burden; and
• people from underrepresented groups in the mathematical sciences have seen increased structural barriers in career development and a disproportionate load of service.

The economic and social case for developing diverse workforces is well established. Now is a time for proactive and decisive action by all of us to formulate long-lasting change in the mathematical sciences, ensuring we retain the gains already made and continue to further inclusivity. Here we offer just a few areas where creative solutions are needed in the immediate future.

• In assessments made for hiring, promotions, grants, prizes and committees across academia, considering the academic age of candidates (rather than years since PhD) is now common place. However, the impacts of lost momentum and collaboration development are far longer lasting, but less obvious, than those of lost absolute research time. We must now look beyond metrics to consider a more nuanced definition of what makes a talented and productive scientist.
• Where possible, extending contracts and allowing for teaching relief in academic settings will enable opportunity to regain research momentum lost during the pandemic. We recognise the significant budgetary challenge in this area, but we implore individuals, departments and organisations to think creatively in this space, seek out non-traditional solutions and make conscious decisions to support those from underrepresented groups and in their early career.
• This is a time to redouble our efforts towards inclusion and diversity across the mathematical sciences, and across academia, industry, and government. We empower you to petition managers, departments and organisations to avoid cuts in equity programs. As a minimum, we can ensure that deadlines, meeting times and workplace arrangements allow for the flexibility that staff need, not only in this time but into the future, to support the careers of researchers and practitioners in mathematics, statistics, and data science, particularly women and caregivers.
• The pandemic has impacted many people from diverse backgrounds in ways that are as varied and nuanced as people are different and nuanced. We exhort colleagues, managers and organisations to genuinely listen, to treat each case, thoughtfully, on its merits, and be prepared to work on suitably varied and nuanced solutions.

During this time of increased uncertainty and heightened physical and mental burdens, we ask our fellow mathematicians, statisticians and data scientists, our departments and our organisations to support each other in retaining and developing our diverse and talented Australian mathematical sciences community.

Yours sincerely,

Prof. S. Ole Warnaar
President of the Australian Mathematical Society (AustMS)

Dr Jessica Kasza
President of the Statistical Society of Australia (SSA)

(printable, accessible PDF)

The following organisations have endorsed the AustMS/SSA Covid-19 impact statement:

·         ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS)

·         Australian Academy of Science (AAS)

·         Australian Academy of Technology and Engineering (ATSE)

·         Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute (AMSI)

·         Mathematical Research Institute (MATRIX)

·         The National Tertiary Education Union (NTEU)

·         University of Sydney Mathematical Research Institute (SMRI)

·         Science & Technology Australia (STA)    

       

       

         

Useful Resources:

¹An open letter from the EWM, European Women in Mathematics, 22 September 2020 
https://www.europeanwomeninmaths.org/ewm-open-letter-on-the-covid-19-pandemic/

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women in the STEM workforce,
Rapid Research Information Forum, 17 May 2020 
www.science.org.au/covid19/women-stem-workforce

Impacts of COVID-19 for EMCRs National Survey, EMCR Forum, August 2020
https://www.science.org.au/news- and-events/news-and-media-releases/early-and-mid-career-researchers-fear-their-careers-are-risk

In the Eye of the Beholder: Avoiding the Merit Trap, Chief Executive Women and Male Champions of Change
https://cew.org.au/topics/merit-trap/

National Evaluation Guide for STEM Gender Equity Programs, Women in STEM Ambassador, 8 December 2020 
https://womeninstem.org.au/national-evaluation-guide/

Women in Science decadal plan
https://www.science.org.au/support/analysis/decadal-plans-science/women-in-stem-decadal-plan

STEM Women: https://www.stemwomen.org.au/ 

This week we launched Science & Technology Australia’s Pre-Budget submission. In it, we proposed a big and bold idea: a new $2.4 billion research translation and commercialisation fund. A once-in-a-generation seismic investment in science in the 2021 Budget would be a defining legacy for the Government, securing the science heft needed to face the next challenges after COVID-19. It would be a powerful vehicle to turn more of Australia’s world-class university research into products, services and jobs with deeper industry-university collaboration. The proposal generated positive coverage, including in The Australian, InnovationAus, The Canberra Times, and Campus Morning Mail. Late last week, we also garnered global coverage with our joint media statement with other key science groups drawing attention to the decision by Facebook to block the feeds of science and health organisations on the eve of the nation’s largest-ever vaccine rollout amid a global pandemic. STA’s Facebook page was among those blocked for several days - before the coverage managed to restore our feed. Please let us know if your organisation is still having difficulties with getting your feed restored. Our Superstars of STEM had their first two days of high-quality training last week. The cohort is brimming with talent, and it was a joy to see these diverse and brilliant women lifting each other up. If you haven’t already, follow them all using our list in Twitter - it’s a daily dose of inspiration.  Meanwhile, a continuing volume of policy, program and events work continues at STA.  If you haven’t already - please register your delegates for Science Meets Parliament by Sunday (Feb 28). With an outstanding online program in 2021, we want to make sure your members have the chance to access this excellent professional development opportunity. Register now! Finally, we encourage you to spread the word. Even if people aren’t attending #SmP2021 as a delegate, they can still buy a ticket to one of the five concurrent events for our SmP National Gala Dinners on Monday March 29 in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney. This will be the first big gathering for the STEM sector leaders in many capitals since the outset of the pandemic. It will be a chance for us to say thank you to those who’ve shared their expertise, celebrate the role of science in saving lives, and enjoy a night of inspiring company and content. Please join us - you can buy tickets here!   Until next time,  Misha Schubert  CEO, Science & Technology Australia  NEW REPORTS AND POLICY CHANGES OF INTEREST TO STA MEMBERS The 2021 Economic and Political Outlook was released by CEDA  After 2 years of anticipation the final report into the inquiry into Nationhood, National Identity, and Democracy has been released The ANU National Security College has released an occasional paper on navigating between foreign influence and foreign interference  Meat and Livestock Australia released an R&D wrap up of their latest report The UK Institute for Public Policy Research has released a paper on skills for a green recovery for the construction sector  The Gonski Institute has released a report on Why Australia keeps falling short of its educational goals  DIGI Australian code of practice on disinformation and misinformation The Australian Academy of Science has released its pre-budget submission  The Australian Academy of Technology & Engineering released a report on how Antarctic science can help us understand the Australian climate Further information: Peter Derbyshire, STA Policy Manager - peter.derbyshire@sta.org.au HURRY - LAST CHANCE TO REGISTER: SCIENCE MEETS PARLIAMENT 2021 Don’t miss out as our flagship event turns 21! Science meets Parliament is an unrivalled opportunity for STEM professionals to upskill and connect with Parliamentarians and the broader STEM sector. In 2021, over two days of superb online content, 50 experts will share invaluable insights on policymaking, communications and Parliamentary engagement. It’s the best-value professional development event of the year.  Registrations for #SmP2021 close Feb 28 - so be quick! See the updated program and register here.     PM’S PRIZES FOR SCIENCE: NOMINATIONS OPEN NOW STA encourages our members to identify deserving nominees whose commitment, talent and contributions to science should be recognised in this year’s Prime Minister’s Prizes for Science.  These awards should reflect the strong diversity of our STEM sector, and we encourage members to reflect that diversity in nominations. Nominate someone here. Nominations close March 9. STA MEMBER CONFERENCES/MEMBER EVENTS/EVENTS OF INTEREST Plastics – are they a problem, benefit or a game-changer? Join RACI’s 10-part virtual series exploring innovations, challenges, sustainable uses, recycling and the future of plastics. Commencing Tuesday 16 Feb 2021 To add a conference or event: contact STA Events & Membership Manager Mitchell Piercey – mitchell.piercey@sta.org.au

GRANTS AND FUNDING OPPORTUNITIES      Heck Media is looking for scientists, researchers, academics and science communicators to feature on their upcoming as-yet unnamed podcast to share their findings related to animals and microbes. You can apply to be featured here. Dr Catherine Ball is re-launching her podcast News from the Future: convergent tech, disruptive engineering, genomics, environmental and social change, the peak of civilisation or the end of society as our parents knew it…. If this sounds like you and you want to be involved get in touch with Catherine. Discovery Indigenous for funding commencing in 2022 – Closing 17 March 2021 Entrepreneurs' Programme - Accelerating Commercialisation – Ongoing STA MEMBER STORIES  A number of our members were affected by Facebook’s recent blocking of content. STA was one of the organisations that were affected – you can read our joint statement with the Australian Academy of Science and the Australian Science Media Centre here. Our Facebook page is showing content again now, but a number of our members may still be affected. If your organisation’s Facebook page is still not showing content (make sure you ‘View as visitor’ to test this) please let our Communications Manager, Martyn Pearce know.

A once-in-a-generation seismic investment in science in the 2021 Budget would be a defining legacy for the Government, securing the science heft needed to face the next challenges after COVID-19.

A new $2.4 billion research translation and commercialisation fund would be a powerful vehicle to turn more of Australia’s world-class university research into products, services and jobs with deeper industry-university collaboration.

In its pre-Budget submission, Science & Technology Australia proposes a strategic investment to boost job creation, strengthen sovereign capability and turbo-charge the economic recovery.

Science & Technology Australia Chief Executive Officer Misha Schubert said a research translation and commercialisation fund would secure Australia’s ability to respond to the crisis after COVID.

“The pandemic has put into stark relief the fact that science investments made over previous decades have come into their own in this moment of national need,” she said.

“With the crucial role of science front and centre in the public mind, it’s time to secure the science capabilities we need to face the crisis after COVID – and the ones after that.”

“A Science Future Fund or Research Translation & Commercialisation Fund would help turbo-charge Australia’s economic recovery and maximise our bang-for-buck return from university research.”

“What’s missing from our research funding system at the moment is a vehicle to get more of our ‘almost there’ stage research turned into products and services that create new jobs and growth.”

“Australia has a highly-skilled STEM workforce and world-class research – our challenge is to maximise even further the returns those assets deliver to the nation and economy.”

STA estimates the proposal would cost $2.4 billion over the Budget forward estimates.

“A new research translation and commercialisation fund would drive deeper collaboration between universities and business, create new local jobs, and boost sovereign capability,” she said.

“As we come out of the pandemic, we have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to enable science and technology to boost our economy, secure Australia’s intellectual property rights, and prepare us for whatever crisis comes next. A research translation fund would do all of this and more.”

Science & Technology Australia proposes the Government use the May 2021 Budget to make long-term reforms that create a powerful legacy. These include:

● Secure Australia’s capability to respond to future crises by establishing a new ‘Science Future Fund’ or ‘Research Translation Fund’ to turn more of Australia’s science into rapid applications;

● Tackle the urgent need to stop the brain drain of young people out of STEM and boost future STEM talent for Australia with a new strategic initiative to inspire more Australian school students into science, technology, engineering and maths;

● Tap into deep Indigenous knowledge in science, technology, engineering and maths by investing $4 million over four years to support an Australian Indigenous Scientists/STEM Network;

● Invest in a comprehensive long-term national plan for Australian science and technology;

● Continue the commitment to nurture expert STEM advice and connections for policymakers with a long-term endowment to support Science Meets Parliament; and

● An initiative to track the loss of researchers and scientists from Australia’s university sector and a program to provide workforce bridging for those affected.

Media contacts:

Science & Technology Australia: media inquiries:
Martyn Pearce – 0432 606 828 

Are you an early or mid-career statistician looking for support to grow and develop your career? Or, are you a more experienced statistician looking to share your skills and experience with a new generation of statisticians? If either of these sound like you then this program may be for you!

Following a pilot mentoring program hosted by the Biostatistics & Bioinformatics Section in 2020, the Statistical Society of Australia is excited to be launching a new mentoring program for all members of the Society. We are looking for up to 20 mentor-mentee pairs to take part in the 6-month mentoring program.

Our aim

This program will connect early and mid-career statisticians to experienced mentors to provide them with career guidance and to share their experiences to help them achieve their professional goals.

Mentees

We are looking to recruit early to mid-career statisticians to take part in the mentoring program. To be eligible to participate, you must be either a student or within the first ten years of a career in statistics, a member of the SSA, and be willing to commit to participating in the program over a 6-month period.

Mentors

We are looking to recruit mentors who have at least five years’ experience working as a statistician. Note that mentors will be paired with mentees with less experience working in statistics (i.e., those with less than five years’ experience will not be paired with mentees with more than five years). To be eligible to participate, you must be a member of the SSA and be willing to commit to participating in the program over a 6-month period. Prior mentorship experience would be beneficial but is not a requirement for participation.

Program details

The SSA Mentoring Committee, a sub-committee of the Continuous Professional Development committee, will match mentors to mentees and contact the mentee to seek approval to introduce them to the proposed mentor. Each mentor will only be assigned one mentee. Mentees are responsible for arranging the initial meeting and establishing ongoing meetings with their mentor. Ideally, mentors and mentees should aim to meet at least monthly for one hour during the program, with a minimum of four meetings over six months. There is no requirement that mentors and mentees live in the same city; meetings do not have to be face-to-face and may be held via phone or Zoom as necessary. A member of the Mentoring Committee will be in touch throughout the program to learn how things are progressing and to help resolve any issues that arise. There is no expectation that the relationship continue beyond the 6-month program. However, we would be delighted if mentor-mentee pairs continue to keep in touch!

In addition to the paired mentoring, mentees and mentors will be given the opportunity to participate in a peer mentoring group of up to five participants to share experiences and build greater connections within the SSA community.

Further details about the program will be provided before the program commences.

Interested?

To register your interest in participating in the mentoring program, please complete the form by Monday 1 March. Successful applicants will be notified by the 15^th March, with the program running from April to September 2021.

Check out our recent webinar "Introducing the SSA Mentoring Program" to see an overview of the benefits of a mentoring program for the SSA, a discussion of the findings from the mentoring pilot program and an introduction to the Mentoring Program Committee and the program to be launched in March 2021.

If you have any questions about the mentoring program, please email Karen Lamb, SSA Mentoring Program Committee Chair at klamb@unimelb.edu.au.

Dr Karen Lamb
SSA Mentoring Program Committee Chair

Science & Technology Australia - Media Release 

Australia must apply the same expert science-led approach to climate change as it has to the coronavirus pandemic, the nation’s peak body for science and technology has urged.

Science & Technology Australia says the nation’s success at navigating the pandemic and managing risks proactively is a model for how to tackle climate risk and transition to a net-zero economy.

STA President Associate Professor Jeremy Brownlie said Australia’s COVID strategy was among the best in the world, using scientific evidence to inform policy, save jobs and protect the public.

“The last year has clearly demonstrated that to protect lives and livelihoods, we need to listen to the scientific evidence and use it to guide policy,” he said.

“That’s a lesson we also need to apply to the increasingly urgent challenge of climate change.”

“The terrifying bushfire season last summer in Australia was a sign of things to come.”

“If we don’t transition to a net zero emissions economy, we’ll see further lives lost, lasting damage to our unique flora and fauna, and more local communities devastated by fire and drought.”

“An orderly transition to a net-zero economy will save both lives and livelihoods.”

STA is the peak body representing more than 88,000 scientists and technologists in Australia. Its membership base includes geologists and mining engineers as well as scientists working in renewable energy and environmental sciences.

STA has made a submission to an inquiry into two climate change Bills currently before federal Parliament.

Associate Professor Brownlie said the Bills propose a long-term national approach to the issue and an orderly transition to a net-zero economy.

“These Bills enshrine an evidence-based approach to climate change. That approach has been the key to Australia’s success in tackling COVID-19,” he said.

“It particularly recognises the need for an orderly transition that supports workers in industries as they move to net-zero carbon emissions.”

Recent research from Deloitte highlighted stronger action on climate change could add $680 billion to the Australian economy and create 250,000 new jobs by 2070.

Associate Professor Brownlie said business, scientists, and investors are increasingly united in calling for stronger climate action and further proactive management of climate risk.

This boost to the overall national economy modelled by Deloitte need not come at the cost of local communities and individuals.

“A move to net-zero emissions does not have to result in job losses and does not mean an end to mining or Australia’s resources sector.,” he said.

“While there will be changes to fossil fuel industries, a transition that safeguards jobs is not only possible – it’s achievable,” he said.

“For a country as rich in renewables as Australia, climate change can be an opportunity to open up new markets and new technologies.”

“Climate change is a major challenge, but as the pandemic has demonstrated, if we have science at the heart of our response, Australia can meet this challenge.”

Media contacts: Science & Technology Australia: media inquiries: Martyn Pearce – 0432 606 828

Seppo S. Laaksonen, ISI Elected member and Professor Emeritus of Social Statistics in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Helsinki, passed away on 20 December 2020.

SSA Chair of the Official Statistics Section, Stephen Horn, reflects on an Australian and a personal link to Laaksonen, which may be of interest to the Official Statistics community.

In 1993 I travelled to the 4th international workshop on survey nonresponse - a rather informal gathering, then of about 30 people organised by a core of north Atlantic methods people, in the wake of the 1982 multivolume review of response in survey by Hansen, Hurwitz and Madow and the alarming collapse in response rates in represented agencies. I used this rare opportunity to seek out experience on weighting, particularly for periodic household expenditure surveys, notorious for layers of missed data. Seppo, then working for Statistics Finland, had recently completed his thesis on the topic with an offprint reaching me in Canberra.

This motivated a whistle stop call on him and colleague Kari Djerf at SF. We crossed paths a few times in next years at the increasingly grand successors to the workshop, and the increasing interest at European level in survey inference under missingness. Seppo attended the 2006 ISI gathering hosted by ABS in Sydney and agreed to travel to Canberra afterwards to give a seminar at my then workplace the Department of Family and Community Services - host of a stable of longitudinal surveys exploring the social condition of Australians.

The subject of his talk was imputation in panel surveys, bringing up to date his thinking on survey adjustment, and timely for us as we were sorting out quality issues with HILDA. Statistics Finland had been collaborating with the Finnish DFaCS equivalent on welfare series and inference binding survey results with administrative data. Their experience in the mid-1990s would come in handy with the big push for harmonised statistics for the European Union over the next decade, and the launch of a European panel on income.

The informal workshop on nonresponse had evolved in the meantime to a full-blown European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics; with the 2010 round being held in Helsinki. This pooled the gamut of methods challenges of individual agencies, transforming an internal concern with declining response to household surveys into a continental push for new techniques and technologies for collecting information from businesses and households. Agencies became incubators for both practice and theoretical advance, with some levening from academics. By the end of the decade small teams from across Europe, drawn from agencies and universities were commissioned to reinvigorate statistics collection. It was an exhilarating prospect from an agency perspective, given the wide remit, resources and determination. We may not yet have seen its full flowering, although I suspect that the current fascination with data analysis and statistical integration at the expense of a good inferential base may spell the end of that wave.

Seppo, like me, had a career in the shadow of ‘The yellow book'.

Särndal, Swensson and Wretman's text Model Assisted Survey Sampling, appearing in 1992 was instrumental in the long reforms in survey design and adjustment.  Li-Chun Zhang has been invited to give this year’s Foreman Lecture at the 2021 ANZSC. This will be an important marker in the next chapter for survey inference applied to official collections. I look forward to Professor Zhang's lecture. Like Seppo Laaksonen Li-Chun is a hybrid, with a solid agency background (Statistics Norway) and dedication to the foundations of inference through an academic career. Seppo's 2006 Canberra seminar, a friendly gesture at the time, reminds me of the peculiar blend among agency methods people of borderless deep thinking, and pragmatic application.

It is a small and loose convocation, but no signs of diminishing; it was personified for me by Seppo Laaksonen.

Stephen Horn
Chair, SSA Official Statistics Section

University of Sydney statistics professor, Gillian Heller, delivers the New South Wales branch 2020 annual lecture on her career-long journey though regression modelling and computing, followed by a vibrant end-of-year dinner at a pub around the corner. 

Professor Gillian Heller spent 28 years in the statistics group at University of Macquarie before recently moving to the University of Sydney Clinical Trials Centre. Prior to that she was a graduate student at the University of Cape Town in her home country of South Africa. During this time flexible regression modelling and computing has been a theme that permeates her work – most recently driven by clinical trials studies and their data. Gillian described her career-long journey on this topic in a talk titled "The New Normal: Flexible Regression Models". It was the 2020 Annual Lecture of the New South Wales branch - and the first one to have a tele-audience because of pandemic restrictions.

An early figure plotted log(computing efficiency) against time for the period 1946-2010. The signal was linear and consistent with exponential increase since the ENIAC computer of the late 1940s. Gillian told us about being exposed to the package GLIM as a graduate student and made its use
sound quite painful from a 2020s standpoint. Later in the talk R packages such as gamlss, VGAM and mgcv were mentioned - which allow very flexible regression analyses to be carried out on laptops for large data sets.

A key paper that was highlighted early on is the 1972 one by Nelder and Wedderburn titled "Generalized Linear Models", that extended Gaussian response models to those with general response and has had a profound effect on many of us, including Gillian. A quote from esteemed Australian statistician, Murray Aitken: "Theoretical and applied statistics were both convulsed by the publication of the GLM paper by Nelder & Wedderburn (1972)" was shared with the audience.

The theme of parameter orthogonality ran through most of the talk. It is well-known that location and scale parameters are orthogonal in Gaussian response models. This matter is less clear in generalized response models and speaker Heller showed the importance of this aspect via analysis of some clinical trials data with the Poisson Inverse Gaussian family and a particular reparameterization.

Gillian also told us about her work with Mikis Stasinopoulos and Bob Rigby on the gamlss package. This has involved yet another extension: nonparametric regression approaches for flexible functional location, scale and shape effects. The talk finished with a statistical version of the song "It ain't necessarily so" such by Gurdeep Stephens and fellow South African statistician Michael Greenacre from a conference held in Spain in the mid-200s.

The speaker and almost the entire live audience then headed down to the Duck Inn pub in Chippendale and had an appetizing and lively three-course meal together. It was a great way for the branch to say good-bye to 2020.

Matt Wand
University of Technology Sydney

University of Technology Sydney mathematician, Steve Woodcock, describes the controversial alternative statistical inference culture within the field of sports science.

Elite sport is a multi-billion dollar industry and data analyses involving sports decisions are prone to abuse. This is one of the main messages from Dr Steve Woodcock's talk to the New South Wales branch of the society on 25th November 2020. Steve is a senior lecturer within the mathematics group at University of Technology Sydney.

The talk started by pointing out that out of Australia-based researchers who describe themselves as a statistician within the Google Scholar system, one that has among the highest number of citations is Victoria University employee Will Hopkins. His work is almost exclusively applied in sports science and he pioneered a concept known as magnitude-based decisions. According to the talk, Hopkins is best known for, in his words, "rejecting statistical inference and replacing it with a clinically and practically more relevant method of inference based on uncertainty in the magnitude of effects". It was then pointed out that several prominent statisticians - including big contributors to our society such as Adrian Barnett and Alan Welsh – have strongly criticised and debunked the magnitude-based decision approach.

The speaker gave us the following quote from former society president Barnett ``If I was ever to peer review a paper using magnitude-based inference then I would reject it and tell the authors to completely redo their analysis''.

Speaker Woodcock expressed at least some sympathy for magnitude-based decisions and said that in the context of small sample studies and potentially skewed risk-reward payoffs - which he defined loosely as "this won't do any harm and may be beneficial" - the approach may be a useful decision-making tool.

Moving away from Hopkins and the magnitude-based decisions controversy, Steve then described some dodgy sports science analyses and claims - such as one involving concussion evaluation in the Australian Football League. Another one concerned the claim of a sweet spot for reduced industry risk which relied on a dubious quadratic regression model.

The talk concluded with the question "An unmissable opportunity?" concerning how high quality statistics can permeate into Australian sports decision-making. He concluded by making the observation that the stumbling block is not from an unwillingness to improve statistical practice in the field, but rather a lack of dialogue between practitioners and statisticians about possible improvements to employed methodology.

Matt Wand

University of Technology Sydney 

Australian school students elevated into global top-10 for mathematics performance

Data released overnight from the latest quadrennial TIMSS testing reveals Australian students at Year 8 level have achieved significantly improved performance levels compared to previous surveys, and compared to their peers worldwide.

TIMSS – Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study – is administered every four years assessing the effectiveness of teaching in mathematics and science at Year 4 and 8 levels, enabling comparison over time, and across states and countries.

The 2019 TIMSS results released this evening are the sixth iteration of this influential assessment, showing that Australia has improved academic achievement in mathematics by Year 8 students. Only six countries included in the survey achieved higher outcomes than Australia, placing it ahead of 25 nations, with another 7 performing at the same level as Australia.

“An improvement of this magnitude validates the commitment of the Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute (AMSI) to promoting the attraction and career relevance to students and parents, developing resources for teachers of mathematics in primary and secondary schools, and advocating for heightened qualifications and professional development needed by mathematics teachers”, said Professor Asha Rao, AMSI’s interim director.

“We urge governments to heed AMSI’s calls for mathematics teachers to possess specific qualifications in the discipline, recognising the importance of educating a future workforce equipped to innovate through application of mathematics, statistics and data sciences”, Professor Rao added. “The current pandemic illustrates the risk to Australia’s wellbeing if a basis of informed advice from epidemiologists with mathematical modelling capabilities are not sustained.” mongst Australian Year 8 students, 68 percent achieved the TIMSS Intermediate international benchmark for proficiency in mathematics, with Singapore continuing to dominate at the top of the global table with an outcome of 96 percent.

“The increased result at Year 8 level is highly encouraging and shows the value of AMSI’s work across the sector” said Professor Rao, “but static performance by Year 4 students shows that investment in mathematics education at primary and secondary levels needs to be increased.”

“AMSI research confirms continuing inequity exists across socio-economic groups, and between cities and the regions” warned AMSI advocacy and policy manager Dr Maaike Wienk. “These results are encouraging but heavily skewed by improvements in the achievement of Year 8 students in New South Wales, and do not necessarily reflect national trends. AMSI remains a vocal advocate for redressing inequalities and ensuring every Australian child has access to high quality mathematics education.”

14,950 students from 571 schools across Australia participated in the 2019 TIMMS study spanning 64 countries.

See the original media release here.