Abstract

Diagnostic and prognostic models could provide an evidence-based approach for efficient triage of suspected or infected patients, and for vaccine prioritization. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, over 200 models have been proposed, and the number keeps growing. We performed a rigorous systematic review and standardized risk of bias assessment of published and pre-print papers proposing prediction models for covid-19.  It has been dubbed "the fastest systematic review ever" and has transformed into a "living" review, with 3 updates published since the original publication. In this talk, we will describe the study setup and results. We review the spectrum of available models, ranging from simple scoring systems to AI based on medical imaging, and pinpoint important issues with the study design and analysis that hamper their reliability.

Laure Wynants (MA in Biostatistics, summa cum laude, and PhD from the KU Leuven in Belgium) studies methods to handle heterogeneity between populations when developing and validating prediction models for use in clinical practice. Her work has received the Lee Lusted award for Quantitative Methods and Theoretical Developments from the Society of Medical Decision-Making and the Doug Altman award. Her paper “Random‐effects meta‐analysis of the clinical utility of tests and prediction models” was one of the most read in Statistics in Medicine in 2019. She is associate editor for BMC Diagnostic and Prognostic Research, member of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics and member of the STRATOS (STRengthening Analytical Thinking for Observational Studies) topic group on the evaluation of diagnostic tests and prediction models.

Her diagnostic models for ovarian cancer (developed with the IOTA consortium) appear in mobile apps and ultrasound machines of GE and Samsung, and are incorporated in international clinical guidelines. Since March 2020, she leads an international consortium to systematically review models for covid-19, for which she has been awarded the Edmond Hustinx science prize. This review already has over 800 citations, has been picked up by policymakers, including the European Commission and the WHO.

This event will be streamed via Zoom from 4:30-5:30pm AEST.

Please join the meeting using this link(link is external).